Wimbledon Seedings - Printable Version
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Wimbledon Seedings - mightyjeditribble - 18-Mar-2017 08:51 PM
(Edited to correct the formula.)
There has been some discussion about 2017 Wimbledon seedings. In particular, the question was raised whether Federer will achieve a top 4 seeding.
It is really far too early, and there are too many unknowns. Still, we can take a look at the points that we already know will be added.
The formula is as follows: Take the points as current ahead of Wimbledon, add the previous 12 months grass court results again (i.e., 2017 warm-ups + 2016 Wimbledon), and 75% of the best result of the previous 12 months (2016 warm-ups and 2015 SW19).
Fed has 2015 Wimbledon F (1200), 2016 Stuttgart, Halle, Wimbledon SF (90/180/720).
75% of 1200=900
So points to be added are 1620 + grass-court results from 2017.
So Fed will indeed have a significant advantage through the seeding system. Apart from Murray and Djokovic, there would seem to be only Raonic at a similar level.
He has 2015 Wimbledon R3 (90) 2016 Queens F (300), Wimbledon F (1200).
So he gets an extra 1425 + grass-court warm-ups 2017 for the seedings.
So we see that Fed is ahead even of Raonic on the extra grass-court points. If Fed wins IW, he will be almost equal with Raonic on current ranking points. Nishikori and Stan are higher, but have almost nothing in grass-court results to be added for the formula (Nishikori has 2016 R16, Wawrinka 2015 QF, adding 180/270 points; very little otherwise).
Currently, Fed's deficit in the rankings behind the top 3-6:
Wawrinka: 1800 (2200 if Stan wins IW, 1400 if Fed does);
Nishikori: 825 (425 if Fed wins IW);
Raonic: 575 (175 if Fed wins IW);
Nadal: 240 (Roger overtakes Rafa if he wins IW).
A lot can still happen between now and Wimbledon, but as things stand, a top 4 seeding for Federer no longer seems entirely fanciful, particularly if he wins the IW title.
RE: Wimbledon Seedings - GameSetAndMath - 18-Mar-2017 10:02 PM
The formula you are using is wrong.
The points won on grass beginning from 2016 Wimbledon will be added. From the 12 months before that time, they will pick the best result of a player on grass and add 50% of that.
So, Fed's addition will be 600 (half of 1200) + 720 + 2017 Stuttgart pts + 2017 Halle pts.
RE: Wimbledon Seedings - mightyjeditribble - 19-Mar-2017 08:31 AM
(18-Mar-2017 10:02 PM)GameSetAndMath Wrote: The formula you are using is wrong.
Actually, we were both wrong.
It's 75% not 50%.
Quote:While the seeds are still the top 32 players according to rankings, the seeding order is determined using the formula: ATP Entry System Position points + 100% points earned for all grass court tournaments in the past 12 months + 75% points earned for the best grass court tournament in the 12 months before that.
Also confirmed by
I will update the numbers in the original post.
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RE: Wimbledon Seedings - GameSetAndMath - 19-Mar-2017 03:44 PM
Do it, for the top 10 folks.
RE: Wimbledon Seedings - mightyjeditribble - 19-Mar-2017 05:58 PM
Total grass-court points added for Wimbledon seedings in 2017, minus the 2017 warm-ups.
So Murray unsurprisingly with the most added points; Fed is second, after Djokovic (thanks to his 2015 win) and Raonic.
RE: Wimbledon Seedings - mightyjeditribble - 19-Mar-2017 06:24 PM
It would be fun to have a "race to SW19" ranking taking these points into account. But for that you need to have a good database.
Instead, let's add the additional points above to the corresponding players' points total as they are now (or rather, as they will stand tomorrow after Fed's IW win). It doesn't mean very much, but can maybe give an impression of where things stand.
So, where things stand, things are quite close between Raonic, Wawrinka and Fed. Clearly a top 4 seeding for Roger is now very much possible. One more good tournament before the grass-court season, and decent results in the warm-ups, may be enough to make it a reality.
Coincidentally, with Murray and Djokovic absent, Fed will be #4 seed in Miami.
RE: Wimbledon Seedings - mightyjeditribble - 20-Mar-2017 08:19 AM
Because I apparently have nothing better to do, I have tried to create the numbers for the "Race to Wimbledon 2017" for the current top 10. I have done this by adding up the clay-court and grass-court points from 2016 for each of these players, so these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt as there are probably some errors. It also doesn't take into account matters such as non-countable tournaments that might become countable when clay-court results are removed etc. But hopefully it is robust enough to give a relatively accurate picture.
So here are the standings of the "Wimbledon seedings race" going into Miami:
So Fed is in a good position at the moment, but of course Miami, the upcoming clay-court season results and the grass-court warm-ups (counting twice) will be added to these totals.
So it will be interesting to see what this looks like after Miami. To make it easier to keep the points updated; according to my calculations, the following are the totals of the 2016 results from Wimbledon onwards, plus the extra points used for the seedings (calculated above). Until the beginning of the grass season, the "race to Wimbledon" points can be computed by adding the number below to the 2017 race total.
RE: Wimbledon Seedings - GameSetAndMath - 20-Mar-2017 11:18 AM
RE: Wimbledon Seedings - mightyjeditribble - 02-Apr-2017 04:47 PM
Update of the "Wimbledon Seedings Race" after Miami:
Fed says he won't play any clay-court warm-ups, so there is a chance for others to catch him during this swing ...
I'd expect Djokovic to do so. Wawrinka would have to play a great clay-court season. Raonic and Cilic are not exactly clay-court wonders, so it would be a major surprise if they did so.
Out of the others, who are at least 3000 points behind Roger (plus whatever he earns at RG), the only one for whom it is not unrealistic to overtake Roger's haul is Nadal. But if he takes 4000 points in the clay-court season, it's hard to see Wawrinka also winning a Masters.
So, on balance, I think it is more likely than not that Fed will be in a top 4 spot in this "race" by the beginning of the grass-court season. A good run at the grass warm-ups would then guarantee him a top 4 seeding.
RE: Wimbledon Seedings - mightyjeditribble - 24-Apr-2017 07:49 PM
Update after Monte-Carlo. (Remember that the ranking is only within these players who were top 10 at the time that I made the original list; e.g. other players will be above Thiem.)
1. Murray 10930
2. Federer 6385
3. Djokovic 6075
4. Wawrinka 5170
5. Raonic 4885
6. Cilic 3985
7. Nadal 3638.75
8. Nishikori 3278.75
9. Tsonga 3162.5
10. Thiem 1967.5
RE: Wimbledon Seedings - Carol35 - 24-Apr-2017 10:11 PM
(24-Apr-2017 07:49 PM)mightyjeditribble Wrote: Update after Monte-Carlo. (Remember that the ranking is only within these players who were top 10 at the time that I made the original list; e.g. other players will be above Thiem.)
I understand that Federer is now #4 and Nadal #5
RE: Wimbledon Seedings - mightyjeditribble - Yesterday 02:13 AM
(24-Apr-2017 10:11 PM)Carol35 Wrote:This is not the rankings thread ...(24-Apr-2017 07:49 PM)mightyjeditribble Wrote: Update after Monte-Carlo. (Remember that the ranking is only within these players who were top 10 at the time that I made the original list; e.g. other players will be above Thiem.)
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